The NC Free Enterprise Foundation, a pro-business nonprofit that tracks political developments in the state, has produced two insightful documents that profile the most competitive contests for the NC House and NC Senate. The two reports also rank all the seats in each chamber for partisan competitiveness, revealing the overall tilt toward Republicans as a result of the new district lines. And they give a quick rundown of the uncontested legislative races and a list of members leaving the General Assembly. NCFEF’s Primary Election “Almanac of NC Politics” is also on sale, featuring an analysis of the new districts.
Redistricting Category
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LOD: Voter Confusion Index
Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012
Democracy North Carolina today released a “Voter Confusion Index” that ranks the counties suffering the most complex changes as a result of redistricting. Most voters will go to the same precinct polling site where they voted in 2010, but their ballots will now have a different set of General Assembly and Congressional candidates because of district changes. Cumberland, Wayne, Durham, Pitt, and Pasquotank counties lead the list because they not only have new legislative and Congressional districts but the boundary lines for these districts slice through a large portion of the county’s precincts. That means neighbors going to the same precinct polling location will receive different ballots with a different set of candidates. The potential for confusion and poll-worker error increases with more split precincts and district changes – although mistakes, thankfully rare, can happen anywhere. More than twice as many precincts were split by the Republican redistricting plans than by any previous NC plan in history. The county-by-county chart for the Voter Confusion Index shows that only 15 of the state’s 100 counties survived the redistricting process with no precincts divided and no changes in their General Assembly or Congressional districts. Most of the 15 counties have heavily white populations and are in western NC or along the coast.
Election Alert: Preview Your Ballot Before Voting!
Friday, April 27th, 2012
You may be surprised by the names you see on the ballot in this election – especially if you’re among the millions of North Carolina voters with new General Assembly and Congressional districts.
You may even get the wrong ballot – but how will you know!?!
Be prepared – preview YOUR ballot before you vote; learn how at NCElectionConnection.com. You can also call this toll-free Hotline with your questions OR if you have any problem when you vote: 866-OUR-VOTE. That’s 866-687-8683.
And help us spread the word!
LOD: Voter, Be Prepared
Friday, April 20th, 2012
Early voting for the primary has begun – and so has the confusion caused by the new district maps drawn up after redistricting. Many voters have been placed in new districts, and about two million voters live in hundreds of precincts that are divided between two different state House, state Senate or Congressional districts. That means they will receive a different ballot from many of their neighbors who vote at the same precinct. You will likely see a lot of strange names on your ballot – you may even be given the wrong ballot. Be prepared – remember this toll-free Hotline if you have a problem when you vote: 866-OUR-VOTE. And use this website to review your ballot before voting: NCElectionConnection.com. The website also lists the Early Voting sites in all 100 counties and answers a host of other questions. For more information about the hotline and website, see this release.
LOD: Election Officials Nix New Maps
Wednesday, January 11th, 2012
A press release today from Democracy North Carolina begins: Statements from election officials across the state provide new reasons for concern about the controversial district lines that zigzag through and split up hundreds of precincts to create the new district boundaries for state legislators and North Carolina’s 13 members of Congress. The election professionals are not taking sides on whether or not the new district maps discriminate against African Americans or give one political party an unfair advantage over the other. However, in affidavits filed with the Wake County Superior Court, the officials say the maps will confuse voters and poll workers, make elections harder and more expensive to administer, and even jeopardize the secrecy of the ballot for thousands of voters. The press release has links to the affidavits.
LOD: One Reason for Delay
Tuesday, January 10th, 2012
Nonprofit groups, including Democracy North Carolina, are asking a three-judge panel to push back the 2012 election schedule while the judges consider the merits of their challenge to the Republican redistricting plans for General Assembly and Congressional districts in North Carolina. Rather than use the plans in a May primary that could be postponed, it’s better to decide if the plans are as obnoxious and unconstitutional as the nonprofits and a group of Democratic plaintiffs claim. The motion for a preliminary injunction was filed Friday and could be heard as early as this week when the judges convene on another aspect of the case. Our side – the plaintiffs challenging the plans – filed 380 pages of affidavits in support of the motion. Among the many reasons to overturn the plans, several county elections officials say the new plans slice up too many precincts with zigzagging district lines, putting voters in the same neighborhood in multiple varieties of different political districts. That will create confusion among voters and poll workers and elevate the risks of tainted elections that have to be rerun. Our affidavit provides loads of data to make the point, summarized briefly in a letter-to-the-editor about split precincts. One point in our affidavit not in the letter explains the threat to secret ballots from carving a little slice out of a precinct and placing it in a different political district (see paragraphs 35-36).
LOD: Ways to Disenfranchise
Friday, November 18th, 2011
Here are stories about two ways to disenfranchise voters: One, gut the Voting Rights Act and enact voter suppression measures that especially handicap a key constituency of your opponent’s political party. Noted constitutional scholar Richard Hasen has this op-ed in the New York Times about what should be done. Two, draw the new district lines after the Census so you concede some seats to your opponents, by packing their supporters in those districts, and you wind up with more seats that are safe for your party. Lots of voters caught in the middle are rendered irrelevant. CNN has a special on gerrymandering that includes a segment about North Carolina, set for broadcast on Sunday.
LOD: Redistricting Update
Wednesday, November 2nd, 2011
Democracy North Carolina will join three other nonpartisan organizations in filing a lawsuit in state court on Friday that challenges the constitutionality of the new redistricting plans. Late yesterday, the US Department of Justice said it would not object to the plans, using a relatively narrow set of criteria to “preclear” the maps in the 40 counties covered by the Voting Rights Act. But there are additional issues and reasons why the plans can and should be contested. To begin with, the Republican map-makers have unnecessarily carved up 563 precincts with two million adults into over 1,400 sections that are placed into different legislative districts, which will confuse and complicate every aspect of the election process. And here’s the galling factoid: Your chances of living in one of these split precincts is 50% higher if you are black rather than white. You think that’s an accident? Speaking of impediments to voting rights, we’re pleased that the Raleigh News & Observer published our op-ed column about the “campaign to make it harder to vote.” For less print and more song, check out this video that explains the redistricting process from ProPublica.
LOD: Voting Rights Defended
Monday, September 26th, 2011
For North Carolinians concerned about the maze of bills in the General Assembly designed to make voting harder, here’s a link to a Democracy NC factsheet that provides an update of each bill’s status. The NC General Assembly is set to reconvene in November, when it could take up any of these bills – or it could revive its anti-voter initiative in the short session next May. Meanwhile, in an important voting-rights decision, a U.S. District Court judge turned down a challenge that African-American voters no longer need the federal government to review changes in election procedures affecting Section 5 jurisdictions – which include all of Alabama (where the case arose) and 40 counties in North Carolina. Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act requires federal “pre-clearance” of election changes to prevent intentional or unintentional racial bias in areas with a history of discrimination. The judge made a point of saying that the 17,000 pages placed in the record when Congress reauthorized the VRA in 2006 demonstrated that the law was still relevant and constitutional. Opponents of voting-rights protections have a series of cases in the pipeline to challenge Section 5 and other provisions in the Voting Rights Act, and this case will likely reach the US Supreme Court, where the opponents have some sympathizers, they hope a majority.
LOD: Being Double Bunked
Monday, August 22nd, 2011
The NC FreeEnterprise Foundation has two entries that provide a detailed look at the 12 NC Senate members and 28 NC House members who are “double bunked” by the proposed General Assembly district maps for the 2012-2020 elections. Given how the new lines are drawn, the homes of these 40 legislators are placed in districts with a second member. If the maps clear court scrutiny, the legislator will have to choose to run against another incumbent, run for another office, move to another district or not run at all. Some members have already made up their minds, according to the useful analysis.
LOD: All of NC is Divided in 3 Parts
Friday, July 29th, 2011
For the redistricting junkie, FairVote has crafted a Congressional map for North Carolina that offers a completely different way to elect 13 members to Congress, using three multi-member super districts and proportional representation. It comes with an analysis of the Republican plan adopted by the NC General Assembly – “one of the nation’s most extreme partisan gerrymanders this year” – and a detailed explanation of FairVote’s alternative approach, with charts and maps. Don’t get hung up on only three districts (there could be five or more), nor the fact that the whole thing isn’t now legal for Congressional elections. Look for ideas that are useful down the line.
LOD: General Assembly Maps
Tuesday, July 19th, 2011
Catawba College professor of politics and history Dr. Michael Blitzer has sorted through the data for the General Assembly districts proposed by the Republican majority. His conclusion: 90% of the seats are drawn with a decidedly partisan tilt, heavily toward the Republicans, nearly guaranteeing that party majority control of both legislative chambers for the next decade. In the House, the GOP has 33 “safe” seats and 39 that “lean” in their favor, for a total of 72 out of 120 seats. Another 12 of the 120 are “toss up.” In the Senate, the GOP has 13 “safe” and 16 “lean” seats or 29 of the 50 seats. Five others are “toss up.” Republicans achieved this masterful gerrymandering by segregating large numbers of African Americans and Democrats into districts where they form a super-majority, while reducing their numbers substantially in many other districts, making them more pro-Republican. The NC FreeEnterprise Foundation provides handy charts that compare the current and proposed partisan breakdown in the Senate and House districts. As NCFEF points out, “Keep in mind that when Republican registration meets 35 percent, it typically signals that Republicans face a level playing field with Democrats” because so many white Democrats routinely vote for the Republican candidate. The partisan redistricting process that produces an intensely partisan outcome took plenty of hits in the public hearing yesterday, and so did the fact that so many of the casualties are Democratic women.
LOD: More on Congressional Map
Tuesday, July 5th, 2011
The NC FreeEnterprise Foundation, a conservative business association, provides another view of the new Congressional districts proposed by Republicans. It says “the maps heavily favor the election of a solid majority Republican contingent to the U.S. House of Representatives from North Carolina in 2012, if the maps are approved and implemented ‘as is.’” And it provides a before and after chart showing the partisan make-up of the current and new districts. Democrats are at least 48% of the registered voters in 6 of the 13 districts now, but that drops to 4 districts in the new plan and one of them is Rep. Walter Jones’ 3rd District, with many conservative white Democrats. The NC NAACP also criticized the plan for moving five counties covered by the Voting Rights Act out of Rep. G. K. Butterfield’s 1st District, where racially polarized voting is still often found, and replacing them with voters from Wake County, which is not covered by VRA’s preclearance section.
LOD: NC’s New Congressional Map
Friday, July 1st, 2011
Republican leaders today released their proposed map of North Carolina’s 13 Congressional districts for the 2012-2020 elections. As expected, they erased nearly all the advantages Democrats drew for themselves when they had control of the crayons. Political observer John Davis produced a detailed analysis of the Republicans “smart mapping,” concluding that the GOP will have 8 solid seats, Democrats keep 3 (Mel Watts, G.K. Butterfield and David Price), and 2 are somewhat in play. For example, the now-contested 7th District (held by Democrat Larry Kissell) becomes safely Republican by giving away some Democratic precincts in Cumberland and Mecklenburg to Price and Watts and picking up GOP precincts in Randolph, Davidson and Rowan. The two majority-minority districts gain more black voters, as does Price’s 4th District, in order to pack Democrats into a few districts and give Republicans a bigger advantage in the remaining areas. Brad Miller still lives in his redrawn 13th District but he has little chance of winning; the new territory includes the home of several likely GOP candidates, including departing US Attorney Robert Holding. The Rothenberg Political Report provides additional insights into possible match-ups and consequences if the new map gains approval. The public hearing for the Congressional map is July 7 and follows a similar pattern of multiple locations linked through video conferencing.