Wednesday, November 3, 2010

In a state where half the registered voters typically do not vote, relatively small swings in the activism of sub-groups of voters can have a big impact. In 2008, the exceptional turnout among African-American women and youth led the way to sweeping victories for Tar Heel Democrats. In 2010, Republican enthusiasm and disinterest among youth are two factors influencing the election results in North Carolina – along the multi-millions spent to reinforce both trends. By the time provisional ballots are counted, turnout in North Carolina will hit 44% (2.7 million out of the state’s 6.2 million registered voters). In 2008, turnout among registered voters hit a modern record of 70%. Put another way, more than one million voters who participated in 2008 sat out the 2010 election. A new report, cosponsored by Democracy NC, uses Census data to analyze the weak shape of civic engagement in North Carolina; that weakness reflects a deep history of enforced disenfranchisement and servitude, compounded by a new ethos of stressful selfishness. The report describes the poor performance of young voters. Our own analysis shows that voters age 18 through 25 were 10% of the Early Voters in 2008 but less than 4% of the Early Voters this year; i.e., their vote share was cut by more than half. No other sector dropped their vote share by such a large percent. (We won’t know the demographic make-up of the total vote for a many weeks.)